Another World if Ivar Kreuger
hadn´t been murdered
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Jan Gillberg
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Written by Jan Gillberg

If Ivar Kreuger had lived and not been murdered, what would have happened then? What would the development have been? What would have been the short-term effects? What would have been the long-term effects? What would the development have been from a Swedish point of view? What would the development have been from a worldly political aspect and even more from a European aspect?
It would be of great value if Swedish economic-historic research took an interest in these issues. How such research could be done can be found in the models developed within the contra-factual school, which was first developed by the University of Chicago.

Some hypothetical solutions  

Hypothetically, I can think of the following part-solutions for the quoted battery of questions:                             

•  From a short-term point of view, a long line of bearish speculators against Ivar Kreuger and his group would have gone into bankruptcy. Furthermore, many of these, as also happened to a number of French, would have been imprisoned. An interesting question is, which of the Financial Houses of Wall Street would have had to pay the price? Would J P Morgan have survived? What had this, in short and long terms, meant for the practised financial power from Wall Street?  

•  In the short run, Per Albin Hansson would not have come to power as he did in the autumn of 1932. In short and long terms, the powerful partnership, which took place after the election in 1932, between SAP and the Wallenbergs, would never have taken place. And with that, Sweden would not have a tax policy, favouring „the administrative office of large companies” - amongst other things, through positive special treatment of the Wallenbergs’ „institutions of power”  - at the cost of new and expanding companies. In turn, what would this have meant for the both long and short-term economical development? How different would not the Swedish company structure be of today? A structure, which to a great extent rests on company formation, partly from the early 20 th. century, partly from the, as it has shown to be, extremely robust Kreuger built companies.  

•  From a short and long perspective, the darkened and disinformation culture, which to such a great extent characterizes Sweden, had not developed - a culture founded with a press campaign led by Dagens Nyheter - which began only a few hours after the murder of Ivar Kreuger. This culture with an accompanying network, has distinguished itself by a long succession of events - neutrality policy, legal scandals from the fifties and sixties, the DC 3 affair, the brothel scandal, the murder of Olof Palme, Estonia, the murder of Anna Lindh and lately, the circumstances of the death of Christer Petersson.  

•  From a short and long perspective, the old, robust Swedish Constitutional and Official State would not have been subject to such disintegration, which goes back to when the County Governor Nils Edén let himself be enticed to cancel the autopsy of Ivar Kreuger.  

•  From a short perspective - if Ivar Kreuger had been able to accomplish „the large German loan” with an accompanying stabilizing effect on the German economy - it is uncertain that Hitler would have come to power, alternatively that Germany would have been financially dependant of the „world power” that Kreuger had become and which upheld peace - unlike the long line of Wall Street bankers with world wide interests in different armament industries. Ivar Kreuger was an absolute „builder” and not destructive.  

•  From a both short and long perspective - if Ivar Kreuger had been able to implement his government loans to the sates bordering on Stalin’s Soviet Union - industrialisation, and with that an increase in prosperity in East and Central Europe, had been stimulated and been able to spread East and force the fall of Stalin.  

Both of these later contra-factual effects would have been able to save Europe from the Second World War and half the world from Communist tyranny and suffering. The murder of Ivar Kreuger would have been an event in parity with the failure of Alexander the Great to force through his decision to march towards the Ganges when his exhausted troops, after two months of tropical rain, refused to obey his orders. Historians claim that this refusal had a decisive significance for all the history of the Western World. This could have been the same when dark forces - whatever they now were - murdered Ivar Kreuger.